The term futurology also known as futures studies discusses what will be
happening in the future and decision making accordingly. Futurology is defined as
the study of formulating educated presumptions that will probably and preferably
prove to be true in the future. According to Bhaskaran (2006), the roots of futurology
can be found back in the age of the Torah and the Bible having their own prophesies.
Then in the 16th century, prophecies of Nostradamus about many things
got the attention of the people and some of them are still awaited to be unveiled.
Jules Verne talked about a journey to the moon of a spacecraft in 1865 where
he predicted the speed, take-off, and landing venues as Florida and Pacific
respectively which came to be true exactly after one century and three years in
1968. Another thrust to futurology in the 19th century was the
publication of HG Wells about the expectancies towards the development of
science and technology and its effects on human lives.
In the twentieth century, futurology emerged as a discipline with a new
pattern of thinking of futurists particularly Alvin Toffler and John Naisbitt
who tried to make predictions on the basis of understanding nature
systematically and scientifically. World War II also contributed futurology
to emerge as a discipline when American forces felt the need of knowing
things that never existed and were not known up to then such as new technologies,
nuclear exchanges, and their effects on human lives and the environment across the
world (Bhaskaran, 2006).
In futurology as a discipline,
the futurists carry out future studies in three paradigms namely descriptive
paradigm, scenario paradigm, and evolutionary research study paradigm. Kuosa
(2011) elaborated that in the descriptive paradigm, futurists make probable
predictions on the basis of developments that took place in the past. Static and
optimistic thinking produces a predictive future to be foreseen by futurists. Research studies comprised well-phrased and clear objectives with
quantitative research in a short period of time. In the scenario paradigm, the researchers put
forward things while explaining the way things will happen in the future.
The scenario they present is not on the basis
of its suitability to predict but on its suitability to value addition to the
process of existing decision making visualizing possibility and introducing
explorations of the foreseen development. On the other hand, the evolutionary
futures research paradigm allows futurists to endeavor to describe and
understand what will be happening in the days ahead in an uncertain world with
higher accuracy on the basis of evolutionary laws.
There are three phases futurology as a discipline has passed through;
the first phase consists of twenty years comprising 1940s and 1950s. This era
of futurology is considered a golden time of planning, quantitative methods,
positivism, global trade, and financing. It was a time to emerge potentials
towards scientific and technological development and economic growth through urbanization,
industrialization, and globalization. Such a triggering situation demanded organized long-term planning, exploring trends and technological future
insights, and needs assessment.
The second phase of future studies includes the 1960s and 1970s called the age of international future research movement
because the future research practice spread beyond American military futurists
due to increased awareness of the trends for future studies (Kuosa, 2011). Ossip
Flechtheim wrote a book on futurology and suggested solving human problems
related to averting wars and peace, stopping famine and poverty, avoiding
oppression and offensive actions, supporting democratic practices, preservation
of natural resources, and so on (Poli, 2011). The third phase starts from the 1980s
and continues up to the present age. In this phase, new methods for future studies
are observed to be ceased relating it to the second paradigm of future
studies.
A small number of methods in future
research methodology have been developed which is too less than what was expected
during the second phase. In this phase, the field of future studies got stabled
as many institutions offered courses related to future studies, and many
dissertations related to the field were produced. The field got identity in
discussions as a regular topic in journals related to futurology.
An analysis of the emergence of futurology as a discipline reveals that prophecies
of the past, current directions, and future forecasting are considered as a
unitary move forward it serves three major areas of research objectives in
future studies (Kuosa, 2011). The three major areas provide a base for
implications of futurology for educational planning.
The first area is about
developing vision and setting aims, goals, and objectives which are at the heart
of educational planning. If vision building and setting aims and objectives are
based on systematic future studies then the achievement of vision aims and
objectives are almost be ensured. For example, looking at the needs and demands
of the society where the individuals want to be in the future, educational
institutions will develop their vision, aims, and objectives with the help of
future studies. The second major area of the research objectives in future
studies is the contributions towards planning and decision making.
Thus,
futurology plays a vital role in educational planning and decision making
during devising policies for education and curriculum development. For example,
looking at the mobility of masses towards or away and their projections which
will be explored by futurists, educational planners will decide to open or close
educational facilities in certain areas. The third area of future research is
solving the global problems of humankind. That means in research and development
activities, futurology plays the role of helping hand. On the basis of
forecasting by futurology, many educational problems are attempted to be
addressed by educationists.
Without authentic sources, it is difficult to make
decisions for the future regarding education thus futurology attempts to address
the requirement. Education is supposed to develop abilities among the young
generation to enable those to be adjusted with the times in the future so
educational leaders, managers, policymakers need to be aware of essential trends
to achieve desired objectives.
Inayatullah (2008) proposed six pillars of future thinking for
transformation namely mapping, anticipating, timing, deepening, creating
alternatives, and transforming. All these shared pillars are the agenda of
education that mapping means here an assessment of the current situation and
setting goals to be achieved in the future.
Anticipating refers to identifying
opportunities and threats regarding the set goals and proactively planning
strategies to address those opportunities and threats. Timing the future
implies an identification of strategies and every possible creative model of
change within the society. The next pillar which is deepening the future is about
harnessing the solutions to anticipated problems so that proactively mistakes
related to the transformation process could be tackled. The fifth pillar discusses
creating alternatives in structural roles. For example in an educational
organization, the roles of administrators, teachers, and students may be
challenged and suggested alternative roles to existing roles.
The important thing
is to develop an organizational functions chart followed by searching for new
structures to employ in those functions. The last pillar to future thinking is
transforming the future which is through narrowing down to a preferred future
by analyzing scenarios, questioning, and creative visualization. There are
insights and implications in these pillars for education planning to transform society. Educational planning involves vision building, setting aims, goals, and objectives, selecting and organizing strategies to achieve the vision,
devising evaluative procedures to supervise the process, resource allocation, and so on are much related to the six pillars of future thinking.
In short, futurology and education are two sides of the same coin. In
futurology, probable and preferred predictions are made on the basis of
analysis of past events and current trends. The analysis and study of current
trends are supported by education through suggesting tools and techniques. On
the other hand, there are insights and implications for educational planning in
futurology which ensures the planning to be relevant and meaningful because, in
futurology, facta and Futura (Poli, 2011) means current trends, practices,
traditions, and their effects on the future respectively both are carefully
postulated. It can be said that futurology and education are supplementary to
each other.
References
Bhaskaran, P. B. (2006). Futurology: In
perspective. ICFAI Journal of management research.
Inayatullah, S. (2008). Six pillars: future
thinking for transformation. Foresight. 10(1).
Retrieved August 01, 2018, from http://www.foresightfordevelopment.org/sobipro/55/760-six-pillars-futures-thinking-for-transforming
Kuosa, T. (2011). Evolution of future
studies. Futures: The journal of policy, planning and
future studies. 43(3). Retrieved July 30, 2018, from
Poli, R. (2011). The step towards an explicit
ontology of the future. Journal of future studies.
16(1). Retrieved August 05, 2018, from http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.390.6129&rep=rep1&type=pdf
Note:
Plz must visit my other Apps & Tech Websites for more information below here.
My Other Tech Websites
1: Imodapps.com
2: Apkroot.net
3: Apklite.org
0 Comments
Post a Comment