The population growth in Pakistan
started from its inception with a decline in the death rate for a longer period of
time. After that expansion in population got accelerated with the declining
mortality rate as a result of improvements in health and living standards of the
people. Lower outbreaks of diseases and no famines were other factors in the declining mortality rate. The population by 1950 was calculated as 38 million in
Pakistan. Today, the overall population has increased up to 200 million.
The
growth in population is expected to be continued for the forthcoming several
decades. The projection in increasing population is expected to be observed in
multiplier effect having tenfold up to 2100. This increased population will
have clear implications for development in social and economic aspects. On the
basis of projections made by Bongaarts, Sathar, and Mahmood (2013) in light of
the projections of the United Nations, National Institute of Population Studies
(NIPS) and Population Council of
Pakistan, the following sections of this piece of writing will discuss the
future trends and dimensions of Population in Pakistan and its impacts on
economic development.
From 1950 to 2010, the population
increased five-fold reaching up to 174 million. By 2050, the analysis of
the projections of population by UN, NIPS, and Population Council shows a
projected population will be more than 300 million. The total fertility rate
considered in the above projection was 2 births per woman in 2050. However,
Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey in 2006-07 and NIPS in 2008 estimated a total birth rate of around 4 births per woman.
Bongaarts, Sathar, and Mahmood (2013)
carried out their study and found that the population in 2050 will be reaching
up to 395 million. Their analysis revealed that in the future a relatively small
variation in fertility trends will have a large impact on population trends. The
levels and trends in the age composition have significant effects on
socio-economic development in the sectors of education, employment, poverty, and
health. It is reported that from 1950 to 2000 the Pakistani population was very
young were about 60 percent of the population was below 25 and during the
century the age structure was slightly changed. However, huge changes in age
structure are expected to be persisted in the forthcoming decades because of
the decline in fertility and younger generations will be a smaller segment of the population than older generations.
The population below age 15 is small
in population size due to a decline in fertility after the 1990s. The size of the population of age 65 and above is small but growing due to increased life expectancy.
The population of age from 15 to 64 is large in number and growing at a fast
pace. In the future, profound growth in the projected working-age population shows an
opportunity as well as a challenge. If they are given opportunities to be
employed then the economy of the country will be improved. Otherwise, if a
large number of working people will be unemployed then severe negative social,
economic, and political repercussions will likely be experienced. The anticipated population growth in the future depends upon four demographic trends namely high fertility, declining
morality, population momentum from young age structure, and migration.
High Fertility
High fertility is said to be
persisted when it goes beyond the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman.
The replacement is a significant factor in the trends of population because it
equalizes fertility level that if it maintained for a longer period of time
then it produces zero population growth. Positive deviation from the
replacement leads towards population growth and negative deviation leads
towards decline. At present in Pakistan, replacement exceeds up to 2.3.
Throughout history, the positive deviation has been observed to be persisted.
It has been observed that fertility has been approached up to 7 births per
woman in the 60s. Current and projected levels are going beyond replacement. Thus,
high fertility will be a contributing force in population growth till 2050.
Declining mortality
In past, one of the factors in the increased population in Pakistan is a speedy decline in mortality rate. In
Pakistan, life expectancy has improved at an encouraging level from 41 to 65 in the 50s. Advancement in medical and public health technology, improved standards of
living, and nutrition contributed to enhancing life expectancy. In the forthcoming
decade, life expectancy is expected to be increasing up to 72 by the year 2050
resulting decline in mortality.
Population momentum from a young age structure
For a certain period of time in the countries
where the population is growing rapidly, the negative deviation from replacement
level will not decline in population growth because of the young age structure
due to high fertility and rapid population growth in the past years. Thus, in Pakistan, this situation of the increasing
population under 25 will persist. The large size of young aged people will result
in a relatively increased birth rate that will be higher than the death rate even
if fertility is at replacement. Such type of future growth is called population
momentum which can be controlled if the young people marry later and take time
to their first birth. The trend gets changed that young people in Pakistan will
prefer smaller families than earlier generations, but that will not be
uniform. Comparatively high educated youngsters particularly women are likely
to have lower fertility than earlier generations. However, uneducated
individuals will not deviate much as compared to their parents.
Migration
Some tangible effects can be seen in some countries due to
international migration. In the case of Pakistan very slight out-migration is
estimated as 1 per thousand people.
The
analysis of the four factors reveals that in Pakistan high fertility is
dominating element in population growth. The standard projection goes up to 302
million in 2050 on the basis of 174 million in 2010. On the other hand, the
replacement projection shows a population of just 264 million. This difference
in projections is because of high fertility which was measured in absolute
terms as 38 million. Even if the replacement fertility is taken from
the existing situation, still the population is expected to grow at 53 percent
in the forthcoming four decades. The young age structure will affect population
growth by about more than half between now and 2050 where effects of mortality and
migration will affect at a negligible percentage in comparison to young age
structure.
Afzal (2009)
found that population growth severely affects economic development. For
Pakistan, rapid population growth is a real and important problem because
Pakistan has the highest total fertility in Asian countries. A highly increased population has become a key factor to reach the overall development
goals. It is highly desirable this uncontrolled population growth is monitored
to release the pressure on the existing infrastructure the returns of economic development
are consumed by high population growth. The situation of Pakistan is different
from other developed countries because the population growth and economic
development are divergent.
Human resources cannot be exported to other countries
as already a huge number of Pakistanis are working abroad. Because of high
population growth, national saving rates are affected where resources for
reproductive purposes are diverted to meet the needs of the high population.
Pakistan has the very lowest saving rates in Asia.
Foreign
investment and export promotion policies of Pakistan have been fairly
successful due to which Pakistan needs foreign aid on a concessional basis which
is not available. That is why the government in the last decades offered varying incentives for foreign investment. Pakistan has the potential to cash human
capital, advanced technology, technical skills, marketing expertise, employment
generation, and linkages with other countries.
In Pakistan,
the population under 15 has a large number that is dependent on hindering
economic growth and they must be supported financially to be an active labor
force. Saving rates are low which affects investment exercise. Living standards
of the people fall due to severe effects on the productive efficiency of the
working force. Pakistan encounters
serious environmental problems. Highly increased population and impressive GDP
puts pressure on natural resources while levels of pollution are increasing day
by day. The fast pace of expanding industrial production and urbanization leads to
industrial waste, water pollution, solid waste, and vehicle emissions that have
resulted in serious health problems in many areas of the country.
A close
relationship between rapid population growth and poverty has been noted. With meager
employment opportunities, relative and absolute poverty is persistent for a
longer period of time. It is evident that poverty declined in the 1970s and 1980s
but increased after the 1990s which badly affected poor families' demand for
education, health, and housing needs. More recent evidence on the incidence of
poverty indicates that poverty that declined in the 1970s and 1980s increased in the 1990s.
That have adversely affected the poor families' demand for education and
the health and housing conditions have also deteriorated. The issue of poverty
in Pakistan has been always a challenge for sustainable development. Long-lasting economic development is not possible without protecting the rights of
the vulnerable groups and the participation of the entire population in the
development process. Since speedy
economic growth and population growth are incompatible and thus, population
growth must be reduced on a war footing.
References
Bongaarts, J., Sathar, Z. A., & Royan, R. (2013). Capturing
the demographic dividend in
Pakistan.
Population Council, Inc. retrieved August 15, 2018, from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/j.2326-4624.2013.tb00005.
Afzal, M. (2009). Population Growth and Economic Development in
Pakistan. The Open
Demography
Journal. 2009, 2, 1-7. Retrieved August 16, 2018, from https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/d054/5becd3d0ba01601f21103cdf8556513b2a29.pdf
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